Thursday, December 3, 2009

Catalans would vote in favor of independence, if given the chance

A macro-survey by the Open University of Catalonia (UOC), of 2,614 people, organized by Miquel Strubell, reveals the overwhelming results: 50.3% would vote Yes in a referendum on self-determination, only 17.8% would vote against, with 7.2% undecided. It is the first time that a scientific poll reveals this data. The poll also exposed that 83% of those polled believe that Catalonia has the right to freely and democratically decide its own political future, and only 15% of the total did not.

The survey to which directe!cat had access, reveals that the principal motives of those in favor of a Yes vote are due, in certain percentages, to emotional reasons— for example, 29.6% admit that they are simply tired of Spain—, but combined with other reasons based on economics and democracy. In contrast, the group that mostly called on their feelings and personal convictions when deciding hjow to vote were those voting against independence. They believe that it would be economically unviable, and that it might generate a conflict or that the laws don't cover it.

[Translation of Graph:

Motives for voting in favor
Motives for voting against
Motives for abstaining
Base in favor: 1,276
Base against: 438
Base abstaining: 607
It would be a peaceful and democratic way: 65.7%
Feelings or convictions 60.8%
It's not my place to decide: 38.4%
Economic reasons: 62.3%It would be unviable economically: 29.3%
Feelings or convictions: 29.2%
Feelings or convictions: 58.6%The law doesn't allow for it: 25.9%
I would be scared of repercussions: 25.7%
Linguistic or cultural reasons: 56.4%I would be scared of repercussions: 25.7%
The law doesn't allow for it: 20.6%
Tired of Spain: 29.6%
None of the above: 5.8%
It would be economically unviable: 18.5%
None of the above: 0.9%
Don't know: 0.9%
None of the above: 13.9%
Don't know: 0.5%

Don't know: 3.2%
No answer: 0.1%

No answer: 0.4%

The study was made on a map of six zones. By territories, the Girona counties are those that have the most affirmative votes (64.5%). Right behind them is the zone of central counties, with 64.2% in favor. The Terres de l'Ebre (63.4%) would also vote in favor, as would those of Ponent (56.3%). Under 50% there are only two zones: that of Camp de Tarragona, with 47.2% and that of Barcelona, which falls to 46.3%. It's important to note, however, that the Yes vote would be the winning option in all zones and that it is in Tarragona (25.9%) and not Barcelona (19.8%) in which there is the highest percentage of No votes for the Independence of Catalonia.

But the study also underlines one of the chronic difficulties of Catalanism and Independentism: the lack of confidence in their own ability to achieve independence. 58.1% of those polled believe that Catalonia will not get to be independent. Only 31.1% believe that it will, along with 10.7% that is not sure and thus, has no opinion.

Originally published on on 3 December 2009

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