Sunday, September 30, 2012

First Post-September 11th Polls Confirm Pro-Independence Surge

Originally published in Vilaweb, 30 Sept 2012

The La Vanguardia and El Periodico newspapers today published two electoral polls which both show a huge surge in pro-sovereignty feeling

The first post-September 11 polls confirm the independentist tsunami caused by the September 11th demonstration. Both the one published by El Periodico as well as that published by La Vanguardia underscore massive and undeniable support for a referendum on self-determination and also an increase in intended votes for sovereigntist parties.

La Vanguardia's poll indicates an increase in parliamentary representation by sovereigntist parties. CiU would be close to an absolute majority (with 66 or 67 seats), and ERC and ICV would rise as well (13 and 12 seats, respectively), though not as much as expected. Solidaritat would maintain their representation in Parliament, but would lose one seat. Conversely, PSC would note a sharp decrease (21) that could leave them with less seats than the Republican Left has gotten for years, and the PP would also go down to 15 or 16. Ciutadans would gain one seat (4) according to this poll, which does not take into account the possible participation of the CUP.

That same poll indicates that 83% of Catalans agree with holding a referendum on independence, and 55% would vote in favor. 33.5% would vote against and some 10.2% are still undecided. The poll says that 72% would participate in the referendum.

The other newspaper, El Periodico, published a preview last night of its own poll on the November 25th elections, according to which 71.3% of Catalans agree on holding a referendum on independence. That newspaper, which in this way was able to present its poll before the La Vanguardia's poll was published, will publish the full results of people's voting preferences tomorrow.

El Mundo and La Razón

Two Madrid-based newspapers also published polls on the Catalan elections, with rather different results. The Sigma-Dos poll for El Mundo foresees less of a positive result for CiU, who would gain 2-3 seats (64-65) and doesn't see PSC fall so far (24-25). PP would keep its 18, and possibly gain 2 more, ERC and ICV would increase to 12 and 11 seats respectively, Ciutadans would keep the 3 seats it currently holds, and Solidaritat would fall to 0-2.

Finally, the poll taken by NC Report for La Razón is the only one that foresees a decrease in seats by CiU (of 3-4, to 58-59), a decrease for PSC (also of 3-4, to 24-25), the PP would increase to 20, ERC would gain 4 (14), ICV would gain 2 (12), Ciutadans would stay with 3 and SI would lose 0.6% of the vote.

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